Video Game Visuals & Diminishing Returns

I wish to talk about diminishing returns in video game technology. As years progress, video games look better and better, but have will or will we ever reach a point where the changes made to technology have such an indistinguishable impact that they are simply not worth the effort.
First let us talk about the law of diminishing returns.

"The law of diminishing returns,  states that in a production process, as one input variable is increased, there will be a point at which the marginal per unit output will start to decrease, holding all other factors constant"

This is most commonly associated with economics and production, however it is also applies to video games. You might be familiar with the picture below.

 

This shows the exponential changes in visual quality when polygon count is increased. Each time it is increased tenfold. The jump from 60 to 600 is drastic. To 6000 is also quite impressive.

However, the jump to 60000 is simply not as impressive. From 60 to 600 we see a nose added. From 600 to 6000 we see a mouth, more detailed clothes and something that resembles what we might actually expect to find on a human face No longer are necessary features we expect to find on a model being added. Instead we see a tidier, more detailed version of 6000. 

So do the laws of diminishing returns affect video games? Yes.

Lets take a look at the Metal Gear Solid franchise. I'll start with Metal Gear Solid, released in 1998

As you can see, the graphical fidelity is rather primitive. Snake has a block head, his clothes textures look painted on and his hair is perfectly angular. The characters have permanently closed mouths and must move their head so the player knows who is talking.

Now let us jump to 2001, when Metal Gear Solid 2 was released.

You can see a huge increase in graphical fidelity, this comes with the advent of the playstation 2 and better technology. Snake now has a mouth that moves, a fully featured mullet and a bandana that isn't stuck firmly to his head. The detail increase is easy to see.

Now to 2004's Metal Gear Solid 3.

The fidelity hasn't improved dramatically. The hair is better, the eyes look better, but this is a small incremental improvement on MGS2's technology. It is of course worth noting that this sequel did not see a console jump, with the game being made for the same platform as MGS2.

Let us jump to 2008's MGS4.

I have opted to go for a picture of young Snake, as its easier to draw a comparison.
Now there is an obvious jump in quality here, with the jump to the Playstation 4.
However, we don't get that same increase in fidelity that we saw from MGS1 to MGS2. The nose, the lips, the mouth, its all better looking, but its not the drastic improvement we saw in 2001.
The cloth and texture detail has improved, the lighting is more realistic but we had already established something that looked something like a face instead of a pixelated block back in 2001.
There are changes, but there are clear diminishing returns.
Now let us go to 2015's Metal Gear Solid V.

Metal Gear Solid V is a cross platform game, appearing on both Playstation 3 and 4 (and the xbox platforms). We see a clear jump in fidelity, but once again we are simply adding more detail to something we already had a vivid image of.

This is just one example. It is clear that diminishing returns are a concern in technology. This leads me to question how video games will be sold in the future. Not in terms of distribution, but in terms of marketing.

Think about it; The easiest way to sell a new game or a new console is by showing a flashy trailer that shows how much prettier it is than the last hot things that came out. As the changes get harder and harder to tell, one would think the focus must shift to other points. Perhaps the focus changes from making something that looks good, to something that has genuinely interesting features? Perhaps not.

I am of course only discussing the visual angle of diminishing returns in technology.

One could argue that visuals are becoming less relevant these days anyway.
There are a lot of successful mobile games that certainly do not hang their hat on graphics.
Popular pc games such as Dota 2, CSGO or World of Warcraft retain a high user base despite nothing having the highest graphical fidelity. In fact, its almost as if graphics matter less than they ever did with the advent of multiplayer gaming, free to play gaming and multiplayer gaming.

So are diminishing returns a reality? Of course. Do they matter? The short answer is:
It depends...

For further reading on the concepts go here:
http://www.britannica.com/topic/diminishing-returns

http://www.extremetech.com/gaming/167673-ps4-and-xbox-one-the-diminishing-returns-of-next-gen-console-graphics

http://www.giantbomb.com/diminishing-returns/3015-6560/